Hallucinations with Large Language Models with my football app

Recently I have asked our favorite large language model chatGPT4o to help me with my football betting game. With friends and family we are usually betting during the football (soccer) World or Euro Cup. I wrote a little R/shiny app called SoccerSuccer, and invite my friends and family members to enter their bets for each game. There are compicated rules for points and rankings, some funny visualizations and sophisticated analysis to understand the patterns of bets and points. Eventually we have a little gift for the winners and it’s usually fun for several generations.

There are a few things that requires an improvement including entering all games of the tournament. According to my original plan, I wanted to copy the teams, beginning time and stadium from the respective Wikipedia page. For the current tournament this is the UEFA Euro 2024 page. However, I never managed to automate this process. Usually just a few days before the turnament, I figure out that it’s already too late to catch up with my plan. Then I always find myself manually writing SQL commands for the database like the following:

INSERT INTO game (gameid, team1, team2, city, starttime, kogame) VALUES (1, 'Germany', 'Scotland', 'Fußball Arena München, Munich', '14 June 2024 21:00+2', FALSE);

You don’t need to be a programmer to understand this line of SQL code above. It enters game number 1 Germany vs. Scotland of the UEFA Euro into my little database. I have to be very careful not to mix up the teams or beginning time, otherwise this leads to plenty of follow-up issues. For example, if the competing teams are wrong, players of the betting game could bet for games, that are never played or miss others that are not scheduled in my app.

So I asked my little adviser from OpenAI chatGPT to help me with extracting the game data from the Wikipedia page and provide me correct SQL code for the 36 games of the first round of the Euro Cup 2024. To my surprise, chatGPT immediately understood my request and produced happily plenty of SQL commands for the first 30 games. Line number 1 was identical with my code example (see above). The following lines were syntactically perfectly correct, but the content was wrong. Suddenly teams like Wales and Sweden, which didn’t make it through the qualification where playing in stadiums that were not selected like the Weserstadion in Bremen.

However, if your are not into football, the data of these footballs games looked plausible. Here is an example:

INSERT INTO game (gameid, team1, team2, city, starttime, kogame) VALUES (14, 'Wales', 'Switzerland', 'Weserstadion, Bremen', '19 June 2024 21:00+1', FALSE);

I have a basic understanding of large language models, and belive to understand, why this hallucinations occuded. There is definitly more important information, than football game data. If this technology contributes to the spreading of wrong information, like medical information or wrong rumors, large language models can become pretty dangerous for a few people. Imagine, if you are taking the wrong drug or rumors are damaging your reputation at your business partner.

I asked the following questions to chatGPT and got answers with a lot of food for thought.

  1. Do you know the austrian lawyer Max Schrems and the dispute about hallucinations of LLMs? You may use the browsing tool.
  2. Can you estimate, if this issue will limit the usage of LLM in Europe?

Try it out! ChatGPT’s answers sound perfectly plausible.

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Online economy is based on Open Source

Open source software has many advantages: Its function, functionality and correctness can be reviewed. It is instructive and adaptable and can be assembled into a full featured operating system with many software application (giving the impression to be) under the user’s (my) control.

On the other hand, as John Mark pointed out, it increases income inequality, because all larger tech companies like Amazon, Google and Facebook made their fortune on the shoulders of open source software like GNU/Linux. There is a tremendous concentration of power within these Silicone Valley companies influencing politics to protect their businesses and escape from tax paying duties.

Instead of increasing democracy and income equality, open source software has created these tech monsters, which are controlling our communication, political views and shopping habits.

However, open source software is not the only party to blame: There is a lot of public infrastructure (streets, rails, electricity, gas, internet, TV, …) and cheap and powerful computer hardware, which are also enabling good and bad developments in our current world. No computer company would exist or ever sell anything without reliable power supply.

We urgently need politicians with a clear vision to distribute income more equally before the Trumps, Bolsonaros, Orbans, LePens, Wilders, Kickls, Salvinis are taking over the world. Unfortunately the majority of North- and South-America, and half of Europe are already taken, while the other half is struggling for life.

We need (1) better patent laws, in particular banning software patents, and careful selection and legal enforcement of open source licenses. Another important step is (2) taxing tech giants (After forming a shameful coalition with the Austrian right wing party, our chancellor Kurz finally had a good idea). (3) Strengthen quality media and fight against political campaigns in social media. (4) Support net neutrality, which is an important pillar of democracy.

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Give peace a chance – Money for weapons

At the latest NATO Summit, the president of the USA, Donald Trump pushed the other NATO allies to increase their military spending. The 29 North Atlantic Treaty Organization members have agreed in 2014 to reach or maintain defense budget by 2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Most countries are currently clearly below. (e.g. Germany 1.24%, Italy 1.15%, Spain 0.93%)

According to a recent NATO report the expected defense expenditure for 2018 is 936 billion US$.  (USA: 623 B$ or about 67%). This is ~70% of the global war budget of 1337 B$ or 175 US$ for every of the 7.6 billion humans on earth.

Please world, spend the money on health care, education, and solving global warming, rather than destruction and killing.

Where is the peace movement, when incompetent politicians are just working for their supporters from military industry?

Give peace a chance and cut the military budgets until 2025 step by step to 100B$ and use the money only for peace keeping  missions. Reducing the amount of private weapons, reduces the number of murders. Why shouldn’t this strategy work for armies, too?

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How I replaced Google with Open Source

The rise of the Internet in the last 20 years was tightly connected with the success story of Google LCC . It is one of the most valuable and powerful companies with an enormous knowledge about all of us. Even though their motto was Don’t be evil for a long time, they are undermining data protection laws and influencing political decisions about digital life on all levels, by their economic power, their search engine algorithms, controlling web hardware infrastructure and their gatekeeper function on Android smart phones and the most widespread web browser Chrome.

One day I noticed, that Google has too much control over my every day’s life, The crucial event was, when I logged out of my Google account with Chrome and my bookmarks were gone. Until then, I thought bookmarks are stored on my local hard disk. The real reasons are my frequent Google searches, while I am coding or searching for scientific data: The results offered to me by Google are biased and Google knows exactly, what I am interested in and working on.

In one of my first blog posts, I criticized Google and their intrusive behavior, but now it has reached a point, that I want to get rid of them.

Until recently, Google Chrome was the fastest and best Web-Browser. Many Web developer focus on Chrome to circumvent Internet Explorer’s inability to follow standards and lack of security (which got significantly better with Microsoft Edge). Not to forget Chrom’s cool DevTools, which simplifies work and increases productivity. The melting market share of Mozilla Firefox was another reason to accept the end of the Browser war with a clear winner: Chrome

Since I own Android smart phones, I tried not to store any data (like contacts or photos) at Google, Samsung or Mi-Cloud, with limited success. Every time I check the permissions, I realize that I am sharing more than I wanted.

A couple of weeks ago, I replaced the Google search engine with DuckDuckGo.com. Firefox has a nice plugin for various search engines and it’s easy to switch. I deleted Google Chrome from all my devices.

The feeling of not being tracked with every key stroke was a relief. I am aware that this is only a drop in the ocean (or not even that). Other companies, like Facebook,  Amazon or again Microsoft, are also intrusive. I know that Google does not care about me as a single user and can easily (at least digitally) send me to limbo. But I wonder, if there are other people out there, who might feel the same and care about their digital privacy.

Here is my action plan:

  • I use other search engines and map services, which do not track me.
  • I have Linux (Fedora) on my laptop, which gives me more control over data leaks.
  • I try to convince as many people as possible to quit Google.
  • I am looking for a Android free phone (Currently I try to switch off any contact to Google, e.g. App store, backup, browser, search functionality, mobile internet, …)

I wonder, if my Search Engine Optimization (SEO) programs, which store my blog posts in search engines (e.g. Google) will be successful this time. I hope that the protected privacy movement is on the rise (link1, link2, link3).

Quitting Google perfectly fits Google’s new motto: Do the right thing

 

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Machines took over Custom Controls in Great Britain

A few month ago, I flew to London Stansted and queued up for the custom control. There was a large group of people ahead of me and took about 20 min to reach to the customs officer, who was, to my surprise, a machine. A few  humans helped to properly fill the waiting lines. Only a small minority with an old, machine unreadable passport or technical problems could talk to a person.  This seems to be a common practice in the UK, but for me it was spooky, that machines took over such an  important security field.

Currently this border robots are able to scan my passport and compare my face with the saved electronic photo. I assume they are checking, if my name is listed at the National Crime Agency.

I was wondering, what might happen, if I was an illegal immigrant or a criminal. Will these machines arrest me? What measures are the machines able to take? Lock me up until the police arrive?

Since these machines are getting more and more intelligent and powerful, how might a future of automated security look like?

After being arrested, they might bring me to an police station run by machines. They could have lie detectors and body scanner. The police questioning is probably much easier and more efficient with a computer. A protocol is stored in the cloud and before I realize what is going on, a silicon judge will send me to prison, where I am watched by robots, which take care of my physical well-being.

After years in prison, when I served my sentence, they might release me at the border, in order to let me leave the country.

Who has to take the responsibility for software bugs or other possible errors in my scenario? Is the British police and politicians willing and able to extend the duties of border control robots? What are the technical limitations?

In science fiction the idea of machines supporting police work is already more than 30 years old: RoboCop was good enough for a successful movie, but does not meet the reality well. I like more the depressing atmosphere in the Matrix, when fighting against superior, violent, flying robots.

Since 2012 a South Korean prison has already some robotic help. The British police uses drones to observe its inhabitants, while the US kills thousands with drones. Even the NATO takes this issue serious and mentions ethical doubts.

A free society does not need machines for security. I vote for disarmament.

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Communication is fundamentally changing

The coolest company worldwide is clearly Cambridge Analytica. Within a few month they became the most powerful voter analysis organization, which could substantially influence big polls like last year’s Brexit and US presidential elections.

Everybody who believed that free speech over the internet comes without costs, learned an important lecture: In the late 1990th when the internet as a communication platform became big, the greatest achievement was enabling everybody to be heard. By setting up a homepage, you could gain a lot of attention with interesting topics.

Some early adopters like myspace or geocities allowed everybody to set up a webpage and start communicating their opinions, hobbies and interests. Unfortunately most users had almost nothing to say. At this point social media jumped in to enable users to document their life (by posting photos) and connect with friends (rather than anonymous users). If you were an open person you could make hundreds of friends, but you had (and still have) to expose your privacy.

All these services were free of charge apart from your own internet connection and computer soft- and hardware. I was never really worried, why big players in the internet business were willing to advance funds. I thought they expect something new and want to be in the pole position whenever something exploitable shows up.

Recently lots of discussions about the social media filter bubble came up, were people are trapped in (algorithm driven) automatically selected news posts confirming their fixed opinions and supporting their prejudice.

Like in Edward Snowden’s lesson (The metadata (connection networks, friends of friends we are communicating with, …) , are more interesting than the content) the social network’s metadata are used to eventually control our behavior: The mastermind behind this new research field is Michal Kosinski. Only less than a houndred social media “likes” are sufficient to assess everybody’s personality based on 5 properties called OCEAN, which is an acronym for openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism (devised by Hans Jürgen Eysenck in 1967).

With this background knowledge, big data companies (like the one mentioned at the beginning of this text) are able to influence our opinion, behavior, and voting decision by placing posts, news, and articles dependent on our personal OCEAN (Like in the movie Inception, with the billionaire’s son, but with less effort). The right message for the right person brought opinion leading and advertisements onto a new level. In combination with the speed of media consumption and the lack of critical questioning the news snippets, we are easily influenced and distracted by nonsense.

Let me give you an example: The lie, that Hillary Clinton is a racist, in addition with wrong proofs and the description of alleged events, made putative democrats not to vote at the American presidential election. These news were sent to people, who consider same rights and chances for all races as most important and live in swing states. The neo-liberal mid-western self employed man, changed his plans and decided to vote, when he was actively informed about the self-proclaimed billionaire’s tax-cut plans. He likes to blame tax laws for his financial problems. In addition it transfers responsibility for his economic failure to politics.

Do we have much reason to believe in sustained quality of democracy and the critical minds of voters? What do you think? Please give me your feedback.

How can we escape from this dangerous brain wash:

  • Don’t use social media to express your opinion. Neither by posting nor by liking other people’s posts. By doing so, your motives become transparent and you might be the target for mis-information.
  • Improve your smartphone’s privacy settings, not to leak to much data about yourself..
  • Avoid high-throughput media consumption like zapping though TV channels or surf the net at random. There is no time for critically questioning the content.
  • Read a book, a quality journal or newspaper.
  • Slow down your life by playing an instrument, meet friends and spend time with your kids or parents. This gives you the strength to stand the media avalanche.
  • Raise your voice against big data collections and undermine it, whenever you can.

Btw: Here is my personal OCEAN: You’re a Rebel. You’re the center of attention and like to pursue intellectual and artistic activities. Challenges excite you, though you can find it hard to control your emotions in some situations, being prone to overthinking. Your actions are impulsive and you tend to become impatient and frustrated when stuck in a routine. Often making spontaneous decisions, you enjoy taking risks and don’t follow others. You have a tendency to be disorganized and are likely to be easily influenced by others.

Search for “Big five personality test”, if you want to know yours!

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Disney, back off from my paper towel!

If you have small kids you are probably aware of my challenge: The million-Euro-marketing-budget cartoon characters are discovering the kid’s minds. Suddenly their bed is full of (plush toys of) handicapped fish or ice-cold princesses like Nemo and Elsa, respectively. Recently, I observed a quantum leap in cleanness after meal time because of Dory on our paper towels. How could Disney intrude so deeply into our family life?

  1. The characters are addressing the kids wishes, needs, and fears: The story behind is comprehensible and is circulating around love and denial as well as relationships and loneliness.
  2. They are cute and well made. Big eyes, scheme of childlike characteristics, strong and pleasing colors and high recognition value.
  3. They reached the critical mass that everybody wants and needs them, who does not want to become and outsider. My 3 and 5 year old kids are not allowed to watch the stressful and too brutal movies. However, they indirectly learn about the story and absorb every grain of information they can get.
  4. The merchandising machinery places the characters everywhere (including my paper towels) and by doing so, they easily go viral.

Respect Mr. Disney, you invented sub-cutaneous marketing for toddlers with a pinch of brain wash. If you read a few of my blog posts, you probably know, what comes next. The checklist how to escape from this conspiracy:

  1. Promote all kinds of alternatives within your family. In the bath-tube, take the water bird’s whistle instead of the self swimming, electric Dory. If this is your only strategy, you are lost. This just works in combination with other measures.
  2. Damage the image of Elsa, Anna, Dory, Nemo, lion king and Arielle by expressing your dislike and explaining the advantages and uniqueness not to be the seventh Elsa in the carnival party.
  3. Trash toothbrushes with Minions and remove all stickers from furniture.
  4. Avoid supermarkets with Disney gifts for customer’s loyalty.

Most importantly don’t turn this into a religious war. There are more important things in life, than fighting against cartoons. Show your kids, that you love them and spend as much time together as possible. Get used to it, that you can never win. And maybe you even start liking Disney-cartoons a little bit.

Posted in Conspiracy, Economy, Shopping | 1 Comment

This is the perfect key to tyranny

When Edward Snowden used the term “turnkey tyranny” (at the end of the linked video) in 2013, I did not see the governmental surveillance systems as the key feature to replace democracy with despotism. Without underestimating Edward’s big achievements and the importance of pointing out the spying on communication systems, I classified the broad surveillance still as a dangerous and illegal way undermining our privacy, but I obviously underestimated the power of the spying system, built up by the NSA and other secret services like the BND in Germany.

Everybody is under the control of the watchers. If you don’t want certain parties to record and file your online activities, e.g. from diseases you are suffering from while consulting Dr. Google over websites you are reading to internet services you are consuming. (The Black Mirror episode “Shut up and dance” shows that in a shocking way. Even though the online activities of the main characters are reprehensible and illegal, it is striking, how people could be controlled.)

Now we are facing the inauguration of the next US president, who is lacking many important personal properties for such an powerful position. You don’t need to be a conspiracy blog author to feel a mild shiver together with serious worries about worldwide safety and global economy. Not to mention the decreasing level of political debates.

Like with global warming it is probably already too late and we are under his control: Here are my suggestions to make it at least more difficult to continue intruding into our lives:

  1. Use encryption: I don’t write many private emails and I hardly find partners for PGP. Similar to Filippo Valsorda, I am also struggling with encryption of my communication. Search for end-to-end encryption apps. I like for example Wickr and it’s nerdy image after its appearance in Mr. Robot.
  2. Try to point out privacy violations in your surroundings, discuss it with the violator and write letters to the editor of established media to increase public pressure.
  3. Don’t use a smartphone. Google play and iTunes App store are market places for intruding into your life. The smartphone producer are even worse: My wife’s Chinese cell phone showed the medal table of the Olympic games 2016. It was even impossible to delete this unrequested delivery.
  4. Get rid of your internet of things devices (like web-cams): Security is not in the producer’s top 50 list. In addition, the IoT devices might be abused as part of a bot-net.

It is an irony, that both secret services named in the first paragraph use encrypted websites. The blog entry “10 Reasons To Use HTTPS” considers the first and foremost reason to use https, to protect your users privacy.

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Populism rules

The Austrian presidential election is going to a lap of (dis-)honor. The highest court decided to repeat the run-off ballot, which was narrowly won by the green party’s candidate Alexander Van der Bellen, a former economy professor. The loser in this election was the vice chairman of the right-wing populist party Norbert Hofer. Hofer and his party sued against the validity of the election. Even though there was no hint, that any vote was counted incorrectly, some of the election laws were violated (opening of the outer envelop of the postal votes too early, not all election-observer were present at all times, …). However, the highest court ruled, that the possibility for voter fraud is already enough to revoke the election.

Now the Austrian people have to pay for another election. Much worse is the chance to get an illiterate populist as a president. What a shame for Austria, if Norbert Hofer makes it.

Recently some reporters asked him, if he would have sued against the result of the election, even if he was the winner. Of course he would, Norbert replied. Obviously he didn’t expect the follow-up questions: The election in question was already the second round. In the first round with six candidates, Norbert Hofer got the majority of votes, which qualified him and the runner-up Alexander Van der Betten to the run-off ballot.

In the first round of the election exactly the same violations were observed, which eventually led to the annulment of the second round of the election.

The question to Norbert Hofer was: Why didn’t you sue against the result of the first round? But Norbert lied: I didn’t know about the violation of the election regulations at that time point.

Let me offer some options for an honest answer:

  1. I won. Why should I do anything against it?
  2. My interpretation of law is flexible, dependent on my advantage.
  3. I am used to defend my version of the truth. Why should I act differently this time?
  4. I do anything to win. Since I was the winner, there was no reason to act.
  5. There was a certain risk to upset the public, which would have reduced my chances in the run-off ballot.
  6. My advisers told me to keep calm about the violations of the law. I do what my advisers tell me to do.
  7. Everything happened behind my back. I have no idea, what’s going on.

There is probably some truth in each of these answers, even though none of them was selected by Norbert Hofer.

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Conspiracy competitors

Recently I saw the first episode of the latest season of X-Files. They blamed their government to be ill-disposed against their own people. As examples they mentioned the Tuskegee syphilis experiment and Henrietta Lacks (Here is a link to the transcript). I did not know about the syphilis experiments but I read a book about the latter.

Henrietta Lacks is the donor of the first cancer cell line called HeLa, which could grow and divide outside of a human body in cell culture medium. This was the start of a new era in cancer research, because the effects of cancer drugs on human cancer cells could be tested in a petri dish. They didn’t ask for Henrietta’s or her relatives permission to take her cells and didn’t inform her family well about the detailed circumstances. Henrietta died but her family believed she became a kind of zombie, because a small part of her, the cells in culture, was still alive. You can still purchase these cells here.

If you read some of my blog posts and in particular my blog title you might get the impression I believe in a bigger plan behind the conspiracy I am writing about. I strongly reject that, but I do believe that main drivers of conspiracy, the effects of capitalism and neo-liberalism are not good for average people. Like during all times of human history a few win and the majority loose until the next revolution, when people request their share of wealth.

However, my tiny blog is not changing much. Currently I have about 400 readers per month. Other pages on the net with similar goals are more powerful and influential. For a moment, I would like to refer to these well written news-sites, the professional blog pages and my conspiracy blog as “us”.

The parties in this fight

There is no doubt that some of our critical statements are not well taken by some parties. The US and other governments, large corporations in general and specific companies in particular are frequent targets of our critics. Of course we are the opponents.

The weapons

How are the recipients fight against these attacks? Since this is an information war, it’s all about the public image and opinion. I would like to stress a citation of Mahatma Gandhi: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Let’s focus on steps one to three, because the outcome is fairly unclear.

The strategy

Ignoring the drone papers and trying to to sweep the NSA affair under the carpet belongs to step one (they ignore you), X-files is the proof, that we are already at least in step two (they laugh at you) of the battle against us. The production company Twenty Century Fox (Rupert Murdoch) is surely a big player in the American entertainment business. They produced and published X-Files by making a joke about us. Exposing conspiracy became entertainment. The connections X-Files make in this TV format have some references to the real world but are ridiculous, unrealistic, and are surely no reason for concerns. X-files is a cartoon magazine.

Perhaps we already reached step three (they fight you) because they try to undermine our serious concerns and make a fool out of us by damaging the public image of conspiracy warnings in an entertainment program called X-Files.

The outcome

In X-Files we have a serious competitor with a huge public attention and audience. It’s a only tiny needle, which fulfills people’s need for a dose of conspiracy. We did not even get a glimpse idea of the real power of our competitor.

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